CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-09-10T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-09-10T18:24Z
CME Note: Associated with X1.6 flare (2014-09-10T17:21Z)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-09-12T15:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2014-09-13T00:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-09-12T14:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-09-10T20:16Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1343
Longitude (deg): 2W
Latitude (deg): 15N
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: This is a late entry. Model run on 00.00Z 11/09/2014. 20% risk Kp7, 70% Kp5 or KP6
Space weather advisor: Mark Gibbs

Lead Time: 4.47 hour(s)
Difference: 1.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2014-09-12T10:58Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy